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Caius Thompson

Caius Thompson

SF

New Orleans Hurricanes · Pick-and-Pop Big / Anchor Big

College: Illinois · Lisle, Illinois

Intelligent defensive center

An elite wing averaging 10.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 1.6 APG. Excels in help defense (19 rating, 99th pctl), 12.1 RPG (99th pctl) and finishing (19 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by playmaking (1 rating, 2nd pctl) and athleticism (5 rating, 5th pctl).

65
Impact
36
Future
4.5
CA
3.5
PA
30
Age
$15.0M
Salary
3.428
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(5)
O Floater Game (S) O Post Hub (S) O Glass Cleaner (B) D Paint Wall (S) D Rim Eraser (S)
Jalen Duren
NBA Comparison
Jalen Duren
2024-25
78%
Style
78%
Level
6'10" · 254lbs
10.0/9.5/2.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Rim protector Rebounder
Alt comp
Dereck Lively II
2024-25 · 75%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 11.1
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 31 (past peak)
Future Value: 36
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 10.4 59
RPG 12.1 99
APG 1.6 47
SPG 0.5 41
BPG 2.2 97
MPG 33.0 92
Shooting
FG% 0.577 93
3P% 0.174 19
FT% 0.88 78
TS% 0.634 90
Impact
Impact 65 90
Off Impact 50 52
Def Impact 69 92
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 14.6 51
WS 8.9 96
Box Score Impact 2.3 77
Value Over Replacement 2.9 89
Positional BSI 1.62 +0.68

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 17 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 16 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 19 (coef=0.0168)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Offensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0160)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 1 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 9 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 7 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 10 (coef=0.0156)
Stealing 5 (coef=0.0145)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 10.4 15.9 -5.5
RPG 12.1 9.7 +2.4
APG 1.6 2.2 -0.6
SPG 0.5 0.5 -0.0
BPG 2.2 1.8 +0.4
TPG - 1.6
FG% 0.577 0.5 +0.1
3P% 0.174 0.3 -0.1
FT% 0.88 0.4 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
39:61%

Positional Fit

Guard 40%
Wing 40%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong On-Court Impact. Defense is the primary value driver.

65 / 100 #52 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +1.25z
On-Court Impact +3.12 (Off +0.79, Def +2.33)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.45z
Win Model Score: 3.4113
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
50
#221
Defense
69
#38
Confidence
100%
2639 min
Position Model (C)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.62 Actual: 2.3 +0.68
Outperforming C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

36 / 100 #467 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 37
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 38
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 35
Future Value well below current Impact (65) — likely declining asset

League Percentile Profile

PPG
49
TS%
93
BPM
74
WS/48
91
RAPM
86
USG%
5
PA/100
85
BCI
20

Shot Quality

PA/100
+8.76
Points Added
+61.9
Selection
0.936
FGA
707
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
35.2%
227 FGA (32%)
Rim
60.9%
430 FGA (61%)
Other
100.0%
3 FGA (0%)
Long Midrange
45.8%
24 FGA (3%)
Above Break Three
17.4%
23 FGA (3%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
4.50
Load Tier
Elite
Eff Delta
+6.0%
USG%
12.0%
Tendencies
Salary
$15.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.533

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $15,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.411
Expected WM
3.857
Dev Residual
-0.4453
Peak Age
26
Peak Win Model
3.248
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Derrick Lynch Seattle Thunder 26 5.0 86.9% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
R
Rubin Wingfield II Toronto Huskies 0 3.0 83.5% Glue Guy / Wing Stopper
J
Jameel Bucklin New York Renegades 23 3.0 81.0% Glue Guy / Wing Stopper
K
Kenan Aleksic Mexico City Jaguars 25 4.5 79.5% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
K
Kyler Amundson New Orleans Hurricanes 25 4.5 79.1% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Value
11.1
Years to Peak
-3
Current Win Value
11.1
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.574
Projected Peak WV
2.578
Peak Age
31
Years to Peak
1
WV Growth
+0.004

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 14 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 19 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 5 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 7 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 7 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 17 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 1 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 5 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 16 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 18 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 15 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 10 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 10 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 11 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 9 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 8 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 1 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 3 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 19 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 17 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 16 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 14 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 4 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 14 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 5 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 16 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 5 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 5 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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