CJ LaCruz

Philadelphia Warriors · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

College: UCLA · Los Angeles, California

Spectacular 3-and-d guard

A rotation scoring point guard averaging 27.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 8.2 APG. Excels in finishing (20 rating, 100th pctl), speed (20 rating, 100th pctl) and help defense (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by post defense (3 rating, 21st pctl).

Impact

Future

4.5

5.0

Age

$25.0M

Salary

3.530

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(15)

O Lob Threat (S) O PnR Maestro (S) O Speed Demon (S) O Slasher (S) O Posterizer (S) O Floor General (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Floater Game (S) O Shot Creator (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) D Help Defender (S) D Interceptor (S) D Clamps (B) D Pick Dodger (B) D Chasedown Artist (B)

NBA Comparison

Luka Doncic

2023-24

68%

Style

68%

Level

6'7" · 230lbs

33.9/9.2/9.8 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Volume scorer Elite playmaker

Alt comp

LaMelo Ball

2024-25 · 65%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 14.9

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)

Future Value: 54

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	27.1	99
RPG	4.6	68
APG	8.2	99
SPG	1.9	98
BPG	0.2	43
MPG	34.4	99
Shooting
FG%	0.472	56
3P%	0.319	35
FT%	0.908	90
TS%	0.58	52
Impact
Impact	46	37
Off Impact	49	49
Def Impact	51	59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	23.1	99
WS	9.0	97
Box Score Impact	5.7	98
Value Over Replacement	5.3	99
Positional BSI	0.67	+5.03

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)

Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)

Passing 17 (coef=0.0156)

Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)

Stealing 17 (coef=0.0145)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 3 (coef=0.0333)

3PT Shooting 13 (coef=0.0196)

Rim Protection 5 (coef=0.0168)

Mid-Range Shooting 11 (coef=0.0069)

Isolation Execution 10 (coef=0.0062)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	27.1	20.1	+7.0
RPG	4.6	5.7	-1.1
APG	8.2	6.3	+1.9
SPG	1.9	1.5	+0.4
BPG	0.2	0.6	-0.4
TPG	-	2.1
FG%	0.472	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.319	0.3	+0.0
FT%	0.908	0.5	+0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency

83:17%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%

Wing 90%

Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by solid Win Model Score.

46 / 100 #293 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.17z

On-Court Impact -0.38 (Off -0.79, Def +0.50)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.26z

Win Model Score: 3.5117

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#242

Defense

#202

Confidence

100%

2721 min

Position Model (PG)

Predicted Positional BSI: 0.67 Actual: 5.7 +5.03

Significantly outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

54 / 100 #203 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 64

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 63

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 33

Future Value above current Impact (46) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-4.49

Points Added

-88.0

Selection

0.995

FGA

1962

Zone Breakdown

Rim

51.2%

916 FGA (47%)

Above Break Three

31.0%

629 FGA (32%)

Long Midrange

47.7%

86 FGA (4%)

Short Midrange

39.4%

330 FGA (17%)

Other

0.0%

1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

21.27

Load Tier

Average

Eff Delta

+0.1%

USG%

33.0%

Tendencies

Salary

$25.0M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.420

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$25,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.512

Expected WM

3.558

Dev Residual

-0.0458

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

4.098

PA Tier

High

Upside Gap

0.5

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
T	Tenzin Ozer	Oklahoma City Barons	31	4.0	98.7%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
L	Lloyd Bruton	Los Angeles Fireballs	25	4.5	98.4%	Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
E	Emanuel Autry	Philadelphia Warriors	28	4.5	98.4%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
J	Jamaria Flagg	Charlotte Drones	28	5.0	98.3%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
J	Jaron Cavalaris	Indiana Stonecutters	20	3.0	98.1%	Secondary Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

14.9

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

13.4

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.498

Projected Peak WV

2.767

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.270

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	18	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	19	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	18	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	19	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	12	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	10	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	6	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	19	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	17	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	20	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	13	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	12	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	15	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	19	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	17	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	17	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	10	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	13	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	18	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	17	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	17	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	5	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	17	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	3	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	16	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	9	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	20	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	16	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	16	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	11	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	17	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	17	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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