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Erickson Wirth

Erickson Wirth

SF

Houston Lightning · Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper

College: UCLA · Huntington Beach, California

Electrifying 3-and-d guard

A rotation wing averaging 11.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.5 APG. Excels in floor spacing (20 rating, 100th pctl), first step (17 rating, 95th pctl) and foul drawing (18 rating, 93rd pctl). Limited by interior scoring (14 rating, 16th pctl) and free throws (12 rating, 22nd pctl).

45
Impact
63
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
24
Age
$1.8M
Salary
3.769
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(10)
O Catch & Shoot (S) O Sniper (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Pop Threat (S) O Speed Demon (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Shot Creator (B) O PnR Maestro (B) D Interceptor (B) D Pick Dodger (B)
Malik Monk
NBA Comparison
Malik Monk
2024-25
85%
Style
85%
Level
6'3" · 200lbs
15.0/3.0/4.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist
Alt comp
Jaden Ivey
2024-25 · 75%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.8
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (2yr away)
Future Value: 63
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 11.4 65
RPG 3.4 52
APG 3.5 76
SPG 1.2 72
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 27.4 65
Shooting
FG% 0.413 18
3P% 0.398 74
FT% 0.797 41
TS% 0.557 35
Impact
Impact 45 33
Off Impact 58 77
Def Impact 27 3
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 12.9 33
WS 2.3 43
Box Score Impact -1.7 27
Value Over Replacement 0.2 40
Positional BSI 0.97 -2.67

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
Spacing 20 (coef=0.0196)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 16 (coef=0.0156)
Ball Dominance 15 (coef=0.0152)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 8 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 10 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
Inside Shooting 14 (coef=0.0155)
Isolation Execution 11 (coef=0.0062)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 11.4 16.0 -4.6
RPG 3.4 3.7 -0.3
APG 3.5 3.8 -0.3
SPG 1.2 1.2 -0.0
BPG 0.1 0.5 -0.4
TPG - 1.7
FG% 0.413 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.398 0.4 -0.0
FT% 0.797 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
23:77%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.

45 / 100 #312 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.04z
On-Court Impact -2.54 (Off +0.04, Def -2.67)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.61z
Win Model Score: 3.7542
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
58
#112
Defense
27
#427
Confidence
100%
2243 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.97 Actual: -1.7 -2.67
Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

63 / 100 #61 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 64
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 63
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 61
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (45) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
55
TS%
31
BPM
24
WS/48
15
RAPM
17
USG%
44
PA/100
34
BCI
60

Shot Quality

PA/100
-3.55
Points Added
-29.5
Selection
1.030
FGA
831
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
39.7%
461 FGA (56%)
Rim
43.9%
164 FGA (20%)
Short Midrange
36.8%
114 FGA (14%)
Long Midrange
27.2%
92 FGA (11%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
10.32
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-1.9%
USG%
18.6%
Tendencies
Salary
$1.8M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.437

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $1,750,000 Houston Lightning exercised option

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.754
Expected WM
3.519
Dev Residual
+0.2347
Peak Age
26
Peak Win Model
3.833
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
B
Briggs Greenaway Austin Rockets 22 4.5 98.4% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
F
Fard Bales Chicago Jailbirds 0 3.0 98.3% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
K
Kahlil Justice Salt Lake City Saints 21 4.5 97.9% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
S
Stephan Rayner New York Renegades 29 4.5 97.7% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
J
Jeron Davis Louisville Colonels 22 4.5 97.7% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
14.8
Years to Peak
2
Current Win Value
13.6
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.770
Projected Peak WV
3.010
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
5
WV Growth
+0.240

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 18 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 11 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 20 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 5 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 13 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 15 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 13 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 10 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 11 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 8 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 15 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 16 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 14 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 11 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 10 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 15 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 14 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 8 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 10 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 12 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 17 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 16 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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