Stephan Rayner

New York Renegades · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Kansas · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Savvy 3-and-d guard

A solid scoring shooting guard averaging 28.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.8 APG. Excels in 28.4 PPG (100th pctl), isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl) and floor spacing (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by offensive rebounding (3 rating, 5th pctl) and strength (6 rating, 20th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.5

3.0

Age

$40.0M

Salary

3.674

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(11)

O Sniper (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Slasher (S) O Floater Game (S) O Shot Creator (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Gravity Generator (B) D Interceptor (B) D Pick Dodger (B)

NBA Comparison

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2024-25

64%

Style

64%

Level

6'6" · 195lbs

32.7/5.0/6.4 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Volume scorer

Alt comp

Donovan Mitchell

2024-25 · 47%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 13.7

Stage: Declining

Peak Age: 29 (past peak)

Future Value: 44

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	28.4	100
RPG	3.7	56
APG	4.8	86
SPG	1.6	89
BPG	0.5	56
MPG	33.1	93
Shooting
FG%	0.465	52
3P%	0.344	45
FT%	0.877	77
TS%	0.586	58
Impact
Impact	51	55
Off Impact	61	85
Def Impact	37	10
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	21.8	98
WS	3.9	66
Box Score Impact	1.5	67
Value Over Replacement	2.3	82
Positional BSI	1.27	+0.23

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)

3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)

Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)

Shoot Off Dribble 18 (coef=0.0134)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)

Offensive Rebounding 3 (coef=0.0160)

Pick & Roll Execution 8 (coef=0.0014)

Strength 6 (coef=0.0012)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	28.4	19.0	+9.4
RPG	3.7	4.3	-0.6
APG	4.8	4.9	-0.1
SPG	1.6	1.5	+0.1
BPG	0.5	0.8	-0.3
TPG	-	2.0
FG%	0.465	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.344	0.4	-0.1
FT%	0.877	0.5	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

47:53%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 90%

Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by solid Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

51 / 100 #213 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.29z

On-Court Impact -0.67 (Off +0.27, Def -0.94)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.53z

Win Model Score: 3.6579

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#79

Defense

#398

Confidence

100%

2578 min

Position Model (SF)

Predicted Positional BSI: 1.27 Actual: 1.5 +0.23

Performing in line with SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

44 / 100 #377 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 62

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 64

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 1

Future Value below current Impact (51) — may be approaching decline

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

100

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-3.97

Points Added

-73.9

Selection

1.003

FGA

1863

Zone Breakdown

Above Break Three

34.3%

689 FGA (37%)

Rim

50.8%

851 FGA (46%)

Short Midrange

33.3%

243 FGA (13%)

Long Midrange

38.2%

76 FGA (4%)

Other

25.0%

4 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

12.97

Load Tier

Average

Eff Delta

+0.6%

USG%

37.0%

Tendencies

Salary

$40.0M

Years Left

Expiry

2044

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.415

Contract Breakdown

Free Agent — no remaining contract obligations.

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.658

Expected WM

3.549

Dev Residual

+0.1085

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.826

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
D	Darius Blackwell	New Orleans Hurricanes	21	4.0	98.3%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M	Martynas Rutkauskas	Charlotte Drones	23	3.0	98.2%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
M	Marcus Pendleton	Oakland Tritons	21	3.0	97.5%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
Q	Quintin Tomlinson	Baltimore Bullets	24	4.0	97.5%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
T	Toso Benhayoune	Salt Lake City Saints	24	4.0	97.4%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Declining

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

13.7

Years to Peak

-3

Current Win Value

13.7

Confidence

MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.632

Projected Peak WV

2.632

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	15	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	13	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	18	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	11	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	14	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	19	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	6	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	14	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	16	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	19	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	11	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	3	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	6	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	8	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	15	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	17	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	19	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	19	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	17	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	18	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	18	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	9	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	18	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	5	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	15	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	13	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	17	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	17	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	16	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	15	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	16	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	15	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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