Garrick Jurkin

Denver Dragons · Glue Guy / Helper

College: Washington · Madison, Mississippi

Savvy hustle forward

A star-level two-way wing averaging 13.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.0 APG. Excels in work ethic (17 rating, 100th pctl), leadership (18 rating, 100th pctl) and endurance (19 rating, 100th pctl). Limited by foul drawing (7 rating, 5th pctl) and finishing (8 rating, 5th pctl).

Impact

Future

5.0

3.5

Age

$27.5M

Salary

4.248

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(11)

O Sniper (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Floater Game (B) D Pick Dodger (S) D Interceptor (B) D Rim Eraser (B) D Clamps (B) D Versatile Defender (B) D Help Defender (B) D Charge Taker (B) D Paint Wall (B)

NBA Comparison

Naz Reid

2024-25

77%

Style

77%

Level

6'9" · 264lbs

12.0/5.5/1.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)

3PT specialist Defensive anchor

Alt comp

Evan Mobley

2024-25 · 72%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 14.6

Stage: Prime

Peak Age: 31 (past peak)

Future Value: 61

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	13.2	71
RPG	7.8	87
APG	2.0	54
SPG	1.5	84
BPG	1.7	91
MPG	31.5	82
Shooting
FG%	0.448	38
3P%	0.409	80
FT%	0.772	33
TS%	0.576	49
Impact
Impact	59	78
Off Impact	54	65
Def Impact	58	78
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	14.9	55
WS	4.5	72
Box Score Impact	2.3	77
Value Over Replacement	2.8	88
Positional BSI	1.84	+0.46

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)

Post Defense 14 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)

Spacing 18 (coef=0.0196)

3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)

Weaknesses

First Step 8 (coef=0.0112)

Foul Drawing 7 (coef=0.0102)

Ball Handling 7 (coef=-0.0080)

Mid-Range Shooting 9 (coef=0.0069)

Self-Creation 9 (coef=-0.0039)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	13.2	16.1	-2.9
RPG	7.8	7.7	+0.1
APG	2.0	2.9	-0.9
SPG	1.5	1.3	+0.2
BPG	1.7	1.6	+0.1
TPG	-	1.7
FG%	0.448	0.4	+0.0
3P%	0.409	0.4	-0.0
FT%	0.772	0.5	+0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency

21:79%

Denver Gap Fit

Rating	Player	Denver Avg	Top 3	Delta
Foul Drawing	7	11.4	14.4	-4.4
Defensive Rebounding	18	11.9	14.8	+6.1
Playmaking	12	9.8	12.6	+2.2
Offensive Rebounding	15	10.7	13.4	+4.3
Post Execution	5	6.0	8.6	-1.0
Self-Creation	9	13.5	15.7	-4.5
Ball Handling	7	11.8	13.7	-4.8
Finishing	8	14.4	16.1	-6.4
3PT Shooting	17	14.3	16.0	+2.7
Help Defense	14	14.1	15.7	-0.1

Positional Fit

Guard 60%

Wing 80%

Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong Win Model Score. Ratings suggest higher ceiling than on-court impact reflects — team context may be masking individual value.

59 / 100 #106 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.03z

On-Court Impact -0.03 (Off +0.63, Def -0.66)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.29z

Win Model Score: 4.2337

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#166

Defense

#105

Confidence

100%

2583 min

Position Model (PF)

Predicted Positional BSI: 1.84 Actual: 2.3 +0.46

Performing in line with PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

61 / 100 #84 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 72

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 73

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 35

Future Value in line with current Impact (59)

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

+2.09

Points Added

+19.4

Selection

1.065

FGA

930

Zone Breakdown

Rim

49.2%

250 FGA (27%)

Long Midrange

41.3%

75 FGA (8%)

Above Break Three

41.0%

507 FGA (55%)

Short Midrange

39.6%

96 FGA (10%)

Other

100.0%

2 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

4.33

Load Tier

Average

Eff Delta

+0.0%

USG%

18.2%

Tendencies

Salary

$27.5M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.491

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$27,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

4.234

Expected WM

3.857

Dev Residual

+0.3771

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

4.070

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
D	Derrick Lynch	Seattle Thunder	26	5.0	97.6%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
K	Kel Pendergast	Denver Dragons	24	4.5	97.0%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
J	Jordan Kingsley	Austin Rockets	20	3.5	96.9%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
D	Damone Tongamoa	Boston Crusaders	22	3.5	96.9%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
X	Xavier Yates	Chicago Jailbirds	20	4.5	96.4%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Prime

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

14.6

Years to Peak

-1

Current Win Value

14.6

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

3.391

Projected Peak WV

3.395

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.004

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	7	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	14	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	16	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	11	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	14	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	18	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	5	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	12	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	16	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	8	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	18	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	15	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	10	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	9	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	15	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	9	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	13	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	17	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	7	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	19	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	10	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	18	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	17	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	14	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	18	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	19	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	11	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
Work Ethic	17	+0.00	Unknown	-
Leadership	18	+0.00	Unknown	-
Discipline	17	+0.00	Unknown	-
Professionalism	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
Aggression	15	+0.00	Unknown	-
Toughness	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
Hustle	10	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	8	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	9	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	16	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	15	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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