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John Ford

John Ford

PF

Denver Dragons · Versatile Big / Helper

College: Villanova · Doylestown, Pennsylvania

Physical rim-protecting center

A solid power forward averaging 2.3 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.2 APG. Excels in hustle (17 rating, 100th pctl), pick-and-roll execution (19 rating, 99th pctl) and defensive rebounding (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by quickness (5 rating, 7th pctl) and foul drawing (8 rating, 9th pctl).

51
Impact
45
Future
4.0
CA
3.0
PA
30
Age
$3.2M
Salary
3.493
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(7)
O Post Hub (S) O Glass Cleaner (S) O Floater Game (B) O PnR Maestro (B) D Paint Wall (B) D Charge Taker (B) D Rim Eraser (B)
Evan Mobley
NBA Comparison
Poor Man's Evan Mobley
2024-25
79%
Style
79%
Level
6'11" · 215lbs
18.0/9.0/3.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Rim protector Free throw merchant
Alt comp
Nic Claxton
2023-24 · 71%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 11.6
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 31 (past peak)
Future Value: 45
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 2.3 10
RPG 1.5 21
APG 0.2 5
SPG 0.1 10
BPG 0.4 51
MPG 5.5 9
Shooting
FG% 0.651 99
3P% 0.1 17
FT% 0.7 17
TS% 0.685 98
Impact
Impact 51 55
Off Impact 49 49
Def Impact 50 54
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 15.8 64
WS 0.4 19
Box Score Impact -1.2 32
Value Over Replacement - 29
Positional BSI -1.64 +0.44

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 17 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 19 (coef=0.0168)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Offensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0160)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 3 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 12 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 3 (coef=0.0196)
Stealing 5 (coef=0.0145)
Shoot Off Dribble 3 (coef=0.0134)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 2.3 -2.3 +4.6
RPG 1.5 4.8 -3.3
APG 0.2 -1.4 +1.6
SPG 0.1 -0.5 +0.6
BPG 0.4 0.9 -0.5
TPG - -0.3
FG% 0.651 0.5 +0.2
3P% 0.1 0.3 -0.2
FT% 0.7 0.5 +0.2

Play Style

Driving Frequency
20:80%

Denver Gap Fit

Rating Player Denver Avg Top 3 Delta
Foul Drawing 8 11.4 14.4 -3.4
Defensive Rebounding 19 11.9 14.8 +7.1
Playmaking 5 9.8 12.6 -4.8
Offensive Rebounding 15 10.7 13.4 +4.3
Post Execution 18 6.0 8.6 +11.9
Self-Creation 13 13.5 15.7 -0.5
Ball Handling 5 11.8 13.7 -6.8
Finishing 11 14.4 16.1 -3.4
3PT Shooting 12 14.3 16.0 -2.3
Help Defense 15 14.1 15.7 +0.9

Positional Fit

Guard 40%
Wing 50%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Limited to 169 min — score regressed toward league average.

51 / 100 #213 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.05z
On-Court Impact -0.07 (Off +0.16, Def -0.22)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.41z
Win Model Score: 3.4776
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
49
#242
Defense
50
#223
Confidence
27%
169 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -1.64 Actual: -1.2 +0.44
Performing in line with PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

45 / 100 #356 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 42
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 43
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 50
Future Value below current Impact (51) — may be approaching decline

Shot Quality

PA/100
+12.05
Points Added
+6.0
Selection
1.020
FGA
50
Zone Breakdown
Rim
60.0%
40 FGA (80%)
Short Midrange
33.3%
6 FGA (12%)
Long Midrange
33.3%
3 FGA (6%)
Above Break Three
100.0%
1 FGA (2%)
Tendencies
Salary
$3.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.450

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,250,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Denver Dragons

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.478
Expected WM
3.857
Dev Residual
-0.3790
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Model
3.523
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
J
Jamaya Patton Indiana Stonecutters 23 4.5 97.8% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
D
Duran Hamdy Detroit Mustangs 20 3.0 97.7% Versatile Big / Helper
I
Ishaq Osten Cleveland Giants 23 5.0 97.3% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
R
Rayvon Nassar Phoenix Vultures 22 3.5 96.9% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
J
Jarvis Cannon Oakland Tritons 27 5.0 96.7% Versatile Big / Mobile Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Value
11.6
Years to Peak
-1
Current Win Value
11.5
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.610
Projected Peak WV
2.618
Peak Age
31
Years to Peak
1
WV Growth
+0.008

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 8 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 15 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 7 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 13 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 10 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 3 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 18 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 5 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 5 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 11 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 19 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 15 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 18 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 19 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 12 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 13 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 16 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 12 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 5 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 3 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 3 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 19 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 17 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 18 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 18 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 5 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 13 +0.00 Unknown -
Work Ethic 16 +0.00 Unknown -
Leadership 15 +0.00 Unknown -
Discipline 15 +0.00 Unknown -
Professionalism 7 +0.00 Unknown -
Aggression 16 +0.00 Unknown -
Toughness 16 +0.00 Unknown -
Hustle 17 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 7 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 18 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 5 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 9 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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