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Joseph Swan

Joseph Swan

SG

Salt Lake City Saints · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Cincinnati · Fishers, Indiana

Dazzling 3-and-d forward

A solid shooting guard averaging 3.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.6 APG. Excels in isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl), self-creation (19 rating, 98th pctl) and quickness (17 rating, 95th pctl). Limited by pick-and-roll execution (5 rating, 7th pctl) and strength (5 rating, 16th pctl).

53
Impact
53
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
29
Age
$6.5M
Salary
3.437
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(9)
O Iso Scorer (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Floater Game (S) O Floor General (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Slasher (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Austin Reaves
NBA Comparison
Poor Man's Austin Reaves
2024-25
73%
Style
73%
Level
6'5" · 197lbs
19.0/5.0/6.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
James Harden
2024-25 · 67%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.6
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 29 (1yr away)
Future Value: 53
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 3.9 18
RPG 1.8 27
APG 1.6 47
SPG 0.5 41
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 8.8 15
Shooting
FG% 0.418 19
3P% 0.386 68
FT% 0.846 62
TS% 0.575 48
Impact
Impact 53 62
Off Impact 54 65
Def Impact 51 59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 0.8 25
Box Score Impact 3.6 89
Value Over Replacement 0.3 44
Positional BSI 0.84 +2.76

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Stealing 18 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 6 (coef=0.0333)
Spacing 8 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0160)
Foul Drawing 11 (coef=0.0102)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 3.9 2.0 +1.9
RPG 1.8 0.5 +1.4
APG 1.6 1.7 -0.1
SPG 0.5 0.7 -0.1
BPG 0.2 -0.2 +0.4
TPG - 0.3
FG% 0.418 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.386 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.846 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
65:35%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Limited to 251 min — score regressed toward league average.

53 / 100 #177 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +1.20z
On-Court Impact +3.01 (Off +2.25, Def +0.74)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.09z
Win Model Score: 3.4205
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
54
#166
Defense
51
#202
Confidence
32%
251 min
Position Model (SG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.84 Actual: 3.6 +2.76
Significantly outperforming SG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

53 / 100 #223 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 54
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 54
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 51
Future Value in line with current Impact (53)

Shot Quality

PA/100
-1.49
Points Added
-1.6
Selection
1.042
FGA
109
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
38.1%
63 FGA (58%)
Rim
53.8%
26 FGA (24%)
Short Midrange
36.4%
11 FGA (10%)
Long Midrange
25.0%
8 FGA (7%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (1%)
Tendencies
Salary
$6.5M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.405

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $6,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.421
Expected WM
3.549
Dev Residual
-0.1289
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.588
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 21 4.0 97.0% Slasher / Chaser
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 96.9% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 96.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
O
Orlando Fitzpatrick Chicago Jailbirds 0 4.0 96.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
N
Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars 30 4.0 96.2% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
12.6
Years to Peak
1
Current Win Value
12.6
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.493
Projected Peak WV
2.493
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 11 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 11 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 8 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 18 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 18 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 6 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 5 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 5 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 15 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 13 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 11 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 6 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 13 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 18 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 11 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 17 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 10 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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