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Lincoln Rutherford

Lincoln Rutherford

SG

St Louis Skyhawks · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

College: Stanford · Tomball, Texas

Dynamic 3-and-d guard

A solid shooting guard averaging 8.1 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 6.6 APG. Excels in athleticism (19 rating, 100th pctl), isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl) and off-ball defense (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by offensive rebounding (2 rating, 2nd pctl) and post defense (1 rating, 5th pctl).

56
Impact
48
Future
4.5
CA
2.5
PA
30
Age
$23.0M
Salary
3.266
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Floor General (S) O Sniper (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Slasher (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Posterizer (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Floater Game (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Pop Threat (B) D Interceptor (S) D Clamps (B)
NBA Comparison
Tyrese Haliburton
2024-25
71%
Style
71%
Level
6'5" · 185lbs
17.0/4.0/9.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Chris Paul
2024-25 · 57%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.8
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 30 (past peak)
Future Value: 48
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 8.1 47
RPG 1.6 23
APG 6.6 95
SPG 1.3 76
BPG - 15
MPG 20.9 48
Shooting
FG% 0.465 52
3P% 0.435 89
FT% 0.917 93
TS% 0.591 62
Impact
Impact 56 71
Off Impact 63 89
Def Impact 40 16
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 3.2 55
Box Score Impact -2.4 21
Value Over Replacement -0.1 21
Positional BSI -0.75 -1.65

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 16 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 1 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 2 (coef=0.0160)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 8.1 10.6 -2.5
RPG 1.6 0.6 +1.0
APG 6.6 4.5 +2.1
SPG 1.3 1.2 +0.1
BPG 0.0 -0.0 +0.0
TPG - 1.2
FG% 0.465 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.435 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.917 0.4 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
71:29%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by solid On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.

56 / 100 #133 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.60z
On-Court Impact +1.52 (Off +0.92, Def +0.61)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.16z
Win Model Score: 3.2486
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
63
#60
Defense
40
#373
Confidence
92%
1330 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.75 Actual: -2.4 -1.65
Significantly underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

48 / 100 #318 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 55
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 55
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 33
Future Value below current Impact (56) — may be approaching decline

League Percentile Profile

PPG
33
TS%
61
BPM
19
WS/48
61
RAPM
78
USG%
26
PA/100
64
BCI
100

Shot Quality

PA/100
+2.27
Points Added
+9.8
Selection
0.991
FGA
431
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
39.9%
198 FGA (46%)
Rim
48.9%
141 FGA (33%)
Short Midrange
35.3%
68 FGA (16%)
Long Midrange
29.2%
24 FGA (6%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
28.66
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+1.6%
USG%
15.8%
Tendencies
Salary
$23.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.450

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $23,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.249
Expected WM
3.512
Dev Residual
-0.2633
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.361
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-2.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 98.3% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
N
Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars 30 4.0 97.5% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 97.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks 26 4.0 97.3% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 97.1% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
12.8
Years to Peak
0
Current Win Value
12.8
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.290
Projected Peak WV
2.290
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 16 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 17 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 17 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 16 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 6 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 2 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 13 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 11 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 15 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 18 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 10 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 1 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 14 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 17 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 17 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 18 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 16 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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