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Lyles Heimuli

Lyles Heimuli

SG

Miami Cyclones · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Houston · Austin, Texas

Long-armed 3-and-d wing

A rotation shooting guard averaging 5.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 2.0 APG. Excels in endurance (18 rating, 99th pctl), athleticism (18 rating, 98th pctl) and floor spacing (17 rating, 90th pctl). Limited by pick-and-roll execution (3 rating, 0th pctl) and post execution (1 rating, 5th pctl).

44
Impact
49
Future
3.0
CA
4.0
PA
20
Age
$4.5M
Salary
3.034
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(6)
O Slasher (B) O Sniper (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Posterizer (B) D Pick Dodger (B)
Mikal Bridges
NBA Comparison
Budget Mikal Bridges
2024-25
75%
Style
75%
Level
6'6" · 209lbs
15.0/4.0/3.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender
Alt comp
Ayo Dosunmu
2024-25 · 67%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.2
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)
Future Value: 49
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 5.8 31
RPG 1.6 23
APG 2.0 54
SPG 1.0 64
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 17.7 40
Shooting
FG% 0.417 19
3P% 0.381 65
FT% 0.786 37
TS% 0.541 25
Impact
Impact 44 28
Off Impact 51 57
Def Impact 41 18
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 11.0 21
WS 0.9 26
Box Score Impact -0.5 42
Value Over Replacement 0.3 44
Positional BSI -2.34 +1.84

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
Spacing 17 (coef=0.0196)
Shoot Off Dribble 14 (coef=0.0134)
Endurance 18 (coef=0.0098)
Athleticism 18 (coef=-0.0094)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0160)
Ball Dominance 7 (coef=0.0152)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 5.8 7.7 -1.9
RPG 1.6 0.6 +1.1
APG 2.0 2.2 -0.2
SPG 1.0 0.8 +0.2
BPG 0.1 0.1 -0.0
TPG - 0.8
FG% 0.417 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.381 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.786 0.4 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
26:74%

Positional Fit

Guard 70%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak Win Model Score.

44 / 100 #329 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.07z
On-Court Impact +0.21 (Off +0.21, Def -0.01)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.19z
Win Model Score: 3.0221
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
51
#209
Defense
41
#366
Confidence
69%
762 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -2.34 Actual: -0.5 +1.84
Significantly outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

49 / 100 #284 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 44
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 44
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 60
Future Value above current Impact (44) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
16
TS%
20
BPM
39
WS/48
20
RAPM
39
USG%
20
PA/100
54
BCI
53

Shot Quality

PA/100
+0.01
Points Added
+0.0
Selection
0.987
FGA
230
Zone Breakdown
Long Midrange
28.0%
25 FGA (11%)
Above Break Three
37.8%
119 FGA (52%)
Rim
49.1%
53 FGA (23%)
Short Midrange
39.4%
33 FGA (14%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
9.56
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-3.4%
USG%
15.0%
Tendencies
Salary
$4.5M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.399

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $4,450,000
2051-52 $4,450,000
Total Owed $8,900,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.022
Expected WM
3.235
Dev Residual
-0.2131
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.690
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
1.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
M
Marcus Pendleton Oakland Tritons 21 3.0 98.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 98.4% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 98.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
Q
Quintin Tomlinson Baltimore Bullets 24 4.0 97.5% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 96.6% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.2
Years to Peak
6
Current Win Value
11.5
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.104
Projected Peak WV
2.775
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.671

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 10 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 14 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 7 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 16 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 17 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 1 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 14 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 13 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 5 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 6 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 8 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 3 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 13 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 14 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 15 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 10 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 14 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 16 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 12 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 18 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 12 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 13 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 18 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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