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Marinho Sciola

Marinho Sciola

PG

Houston Lightning · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack


Skilled shoot-and-defend guard

A fringe point guard averaging 9.0 PPG, 0.8 RPG, 2.9 APG. Excels in stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl), off-ball defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and ball dominance (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by offensive rebounding (3 rating, 5th pctl) and rim protection (1 rating, 7th pctl).

43
Impact
52
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
30
Age
$3.2M
Salary
3.160
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Ankle Breaker (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Lob Threat (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Slasher (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Sniper (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Floor General (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) D Interceptor (S) D Clamps (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Darius Garland
NBA Comparison
Darius Garland
2024-25
81%
Style
81%
Level
6'1" · 192lbs
20.6/2.9/6.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Donovan Mitchell
2024-25 · 72%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.4
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 30 (past peak)
Future Value: 52
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 9.0 53
RPG 0.8 9
APG 2.9 66
SPG 1.0 64
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 15.5 32
Shooting
FG% 0.429 26
3P% 0.369 59
FT% 0.83 54
TS% 0.558 37
Impact
Impact 43 24
Off Impact 51 57
Def Impact 39 14
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 17.0 76
WS 1.8 37
Box Score Impact -1.4 30
Value Over Replacement 0.2 40
Positional BSI -0.65 -0.75

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)
Passing 18 (coef=0.0156)
Stealing 19 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 4 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 1 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 3 (coef=0.0160)
Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 9.0 7.9 +1.1
RPG 0.8 -0.4 +1.2
APG 2.9 3.7 -0.8
SPG 1.0 1.0 +0.0
BPG 0.1 -0.2 +0.3
TPG - 0.9
FG% 0.429 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.369 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.83 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
81:19%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by modest Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

43 / 100 #345 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.13z
On-Court Impact -0.28 (Off -0.36, Def +0.08)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.36z
Win Model Score: 3.1429
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
51
#209
Defense
39
#382
Confidence
91%
1269 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.65 Actual: -1.4 -0.75
Underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

52 / 100 #228 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 52
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 52
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 54
Future Value above current Impact (43) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
41
TS%
33
BPM
27
WS/48
25
RAPM
25
USG%
89
PA/100
70

Shot Quality

PA/100
+3.73
Points Added
+24.4
Selection
0.948
FGA
656
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
36.7%
332 FGA (51%)
Long Midrange
52.8%
72 FGA (11%)
Short Midrange
37.2%
94 FGA (14%)
Rim
42.4%
158 FGA (24%)
Tendencies
Salary
$3.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.411

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,250,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Houston Lightning

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.143
Expected WM
3.615
Dev Residual
-0.4725
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
3.143
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
M
Merlin Rooks Toronto Huskies 20 3.0 99.2% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
K
Kostis Katiakos Dallas Predators 21 3.0 99.1% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
S
Solomon McIlvaine Indiana Stonecutters 30 4.5 98.7% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
D
Dantrell Blackman Louisville Colonels 24 4.0 98.7% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
Z
Zach Camara Minneapolis Blizzards 30 4.5 98.3% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
12.4
Years to Peak
0
Current Win Value
12.4
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.257
Projected Peak WV
2.257
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 15 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 19 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 14 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 7 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 14 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 4 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 3 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 11 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 18 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 18 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 17 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 1 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 15 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 2 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 13 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 7 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 15 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 14 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 14 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 8 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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