Robert Alcegaire
PFDenver Dragons · Post Scorer / Anchor Big
College: Stanford · Corona, California
Explosive paint-anchoring center
A rotation power forward averaging 4.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.3 APG. Excels in aggression (17 rating, 100th pctl), work ethic (17 rating, 100th pctl) and leadership (18 rating, 100th pctl). Limited by self-creation (5 rating, 4th pctl) and passing (4 rating, 5th pctl).
45
Impact
39
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
28
Age
$6.0M
3.068
Bal WV
Skill Badges
(10)
O
Posterizer
(S)
O
Lob Threat
(S)
O
Post Hub
(S)
O
Speed Demon
(B)
O
Glass Cleaner
(B)
O
Floater Game
(B)
D
Rim Eraser
(S)
D
Paint Wall
(S)
D
Chasedown Artist
(B)
D
Help Defender
(B)
NBA Comparison
Discount Evan Mobley
2024-25
73%
Style
73%
Level
6'11" · 215lbs
18.0/9.0/3.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer
Rebounder
Alt comp
Jarrett Allen
2024-25 · 72%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge:
11.1
Stage:
Prime
Peak Age:
29
(past peak)
Future Value:
39
Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)
Strengths
Post Defense 18 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 16 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 18 (coef=0.0168)
Ball Dominance 15 (coef=0.0152)
First Step 17 (coef=0.0112)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 5 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 10 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 3 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 4 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)
Expected vs Actual Production
| Stat | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | 4.7 | 2.0 | +2.6 |
| RPG | 3.3 | 5.0 | -1.7 |
| APG | 0.3 | -1.9 | +2.2 |
| SPG | 0.1 | -0.3 | +0.4 |
| BPG | 0.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 |
| TPG | - | 0.2 | |
| FG% | 0.582 | 0.5 | +0.1 |
| 3P% | 0.5 | 0.3 | +0.2 |
| FT% | 0.711 | 0.4 | +0.3 |
Play Style
Driving Frequency
12:88%
Denver Gap Fit
Positional Fit
Guard
30%
Wing
60%
Big
90%
Player Impact Breakdown
Average score driven by weak Win Model Score.
45
/ 100
#312 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight
-0.03z
On-Court Impact -0.04 (Off +0.14, Def -0.18)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight
-1.22z
Win Model Score: 3.0536
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight
+0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
43
#339
Defense
49
#247
Confidence
58%
610 min
Position Model (C)
Predicted Positional BSI:
-2.33
Actual:
-3.8
-1.47
Significantly underperforming C model predictions
Future Value
Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.
39
/ 100
#432 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight
37
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight
37
Contract Surplus — 30% weight
45
Future Value below current Impact (45) — may be approaching decline
League Percentile Profile
PPG
7
TS%
79
BPM
8
WS/48
45
RAPM
11
USG%
31
PA/100
92
BCI
2
Shot Quality
PA/100
+11.93
Points Added
+24.8
Selection
0.948
FGA
208
Zone Breakdown
Rim
60.9%
133 FGA (64%)
Long Midrange
45.5%
11 FGA (5%)
Short Midrange
36.8%
57 FGA (27%)
Above Break Three
50.0%
4 FGA (2%)
Other
33.3%
3 FGA (1%)
Creation & Scoring Load
Box Creation
2.38
Load Tier
Elite
Eff Delta
+3.3%
USG%
16.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$6.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.421
Contract Breakdown
| Season | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2050-51 | $6,000,000 |
Win Model Development
Win Model Score
3.054
Expected WM
3.759
Dev Residual
-0.7049
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Model
3.197
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.
Win Model Trajectory
Most Similar Players
Predicted Archetype
Offensive
Defensive
Win Value Development
Stage
Prime
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
11.1
Years to Peak
-1
Current Win Value
11.0
Confidence
HIGH
Win Value Trajectory
Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)
Current WV
2.413
Projected Peak WV
2.445
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
1
WV Growth
+0.032
Rating Trainability
| Rating | Current | Growth/yr | Class | Peak Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foul Drawing | 10 | +1.23 | High Growth | 31 |
| Help Defense | 16 | +0.66 | High Growth | 27 |
| Off-Ball Defense | 17 | +0.55 | High Growth | 28 |
| Ball Dominance | 15 | +0.55 | High Growth | 28 |
| Gravity | 7 | +0.52 | High Growth | 29 |
| Spacing | 3 | +0.45 | High Growth | 18 |
| Post Execution | 18 | +0.40 | High Growth | 29 |
| Playmaking | 3 | +0.40 | High Growth | 29 |
| Stealing | 3 | +0.38 | High Growth | 19 |
| Finishing | 19 | +0.37 | High Growth | 27 |
| Defensive Rebounding | 16 | +0.37 | High Growth | 18 |
| Offensive Rebounding | 13 | +0.36 | High Growth | 18 |
| Strength | 18 | +0.35 | High Growth | 18 |
| Pick & Roll Execution | 14 | +0.34 | High Growth | 18 |
| Passing | 4 | +0.33 | High Growth | 18 |
| Self-Creation | 5 | +0.32 | High Growth | 19 |
| Isolation Execution | 14 | +0.32 | High Growth | 18 |
| 3PT Shooting | 10 | +0.31 | High Growth | 19 |
| Ball Handling | 3 | +0.30 | High Growth | 19 |
| On-Ball Perimeter Defense | 5 | +0.30 | High Growth | 18 |
| Shoot Off Dribble | 3 | +0.28 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Rim Protection | 18 | +0.26 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Inside Shooting | 15 | +0.25 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Post Defense | 18 | +0.17 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Basketball IQ | 13 | +0.07 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Endurance | 11 | +0.05 | Low Growth | 20 |
| Speed | 15 | +0.01 | Low Growth | 18 |
| Free Throws | 12 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Work Ethic | 17 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Leadership | 18 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Discipline | 17 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Professionalism | 13 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Aggression | 17 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Toughness | 13 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| Hustle | 14 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| First Step | 17 | -0.01 | Low Growth | 18 |
| Mid-Range Shooting | 5 | -0.03 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Quickness | 15 | -0.08 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Athleticism | 18 | -0.08 | Low Growth | 19 |