Tafari Stephens

Salt Lake City Saints · Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big

College: Northwestern State · San Pedro, California

Heady shot-blocking center

A fringe center averaging 7.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.2 APG. Excels in post defense (19 rating, 99th pctl), finishing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and 8.9 RPG (93rd pctl). Limited by endurance (5 rating, 7th pctl) and first step (6 rating, 11th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.5

3.0

Age

$8.0M

Salary

3.308

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(6)

O Floater Game (B) O Glass Cleaner (B) O Posterizer (B) D Paint Wall (S) D Rim Eraser (B) D Help Defender (B)

NBA Comparison

Jalen Duren

2024-25

77%

Style

77%

Level

6'10" · 254lbs

10.0/9.5/2.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Efficient scorer Rim protector Rebounder

Alt comp

Dereck Lively II

2024-25 · 74%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 12.9

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (4yr away)

Future Value: 44

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	7.1	40
RPG	8.9	93
APG	1.2	38
SPG	0.3	26
BPG	1.6	88
MPG	24.1	56
Shooting
FG%	0.565	89
3P%	-	16
FT%	0.829	53
TS%	0.619	84
Impact
Impact	34	10
Off Impact	31	7
Def Impact	51	59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	13.6	42
WS	3.9	66
Box Score Impact	-2.3	22
Value Over Replacement	-0.1	21
Positional BSI	0.19	-2.49

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

Post Defense 19 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 16 (coef=0.0226)

Rim Protection 17 (coef=0.0168)

Offensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0160)

Ball Dominance 15 (coef=0.0152)

Weaknesses

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 7 (coef=0.0330)

3PT Shooting 8 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 4 (coef=0.0196)

Passing 11 (coef=0.0156)

Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	7.1	9.7	-2.6
RPG	8.9	7.0	+1.9
APG	1.2	1.0	+0.2
SPG	0.3	0.4	-0.1
BPG	1.6	1.4	+0.2
TPG	-	1.1
FG%	0.565	0.5	+0.1
3P%	0.0	0.3	-0.3
FT%	0.829	0.4	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

85:15%

Positional Fit

Guard 50%

Wing 70%

Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Defense is the primary value driver.

34 / 100 #395 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.13z

On-Court Impact -2.74 (Off -2.20, Def -0.46)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.75z

Win Model Score: 3.2933

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#410

Defense

#202

Confidence

98%

1807 min

Position Model (C)

Predicted Positional BSI: 0.19 Actual: -2.3 -2.49

Significantly underperforming C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

44 / 100 #379 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 44

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 43

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 45

Future Value above current Impact (34) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

+3.05

Points Added

+13.0

Selection

0.951

FGA

426

Zone Breakdown

Rim

55.2%

281 FGA (66%)

Short Midrange

33.3%

123 FGA (29%)

Long Midrange

57.1%

14 FGA (3%)

Other

62.5%

8 FGA (2%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

4.75

Load Tier

Elite

Eff Delta

+4.5%

USG%

11.9%

Tendencies

Salary

$8.0M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

Team Option

Status

Trade Value

0.344

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$8,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.293

Expected WM

3.234

Dev Residual

+0.0591

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.597

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
D	Devon Walton	Philadelphia Warriors	26	4.5	98.6%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Mobile Big
T	Triston Dantley	Los Angeles Fireballs	20	4.0	98.4%	Post Scorer / Anchor Big
R	Rosario Silvestro	Cincinnati Kings	23	3.5	98.2%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big
C	Conner Pearson	St Louis Skyhawks	30	5.0	98.1%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big
K	Khadeem Wills	Austin Rockets	20	3.5	98.1%	Post Scorer / Anchor Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

12.9

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

11.5

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.617

Projected Peak WV

2.925

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.308

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	17	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	17	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	11	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	15	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	17	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	4	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	11	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	6	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	7	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	19	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	16	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	15	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	17	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	13	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	11	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	12	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	13	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	8	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	4	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	7	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	7	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	17	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	15	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	19	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	16	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	5	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	14	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	12	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	6	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	7	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	12	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	11	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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