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Xavian Millinghaus

Xavian Millinghaus

PF

Oklahoma City Barons · Post Scorer / Anchor Big

Bulldozing defensive center

A rotation power forward averaging 7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 0.7 APG. Excels in post execution (17 rating, 91st pctl), basketball IQ (17 rating, 85th pctl) and foul drawing (16 rating, 79th pctl). Limited by shoot off dribble (1 rating, 2nd pctl) and quickness (4 rating, 2nd pctl).

44
Impact
29
Future
3.0
CA
2.0
PA
22
Age
$1.8M
Salary
2.813
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(2)
O Floater Game (B) O Post Hub (B)
Ivica Zubac
NBA Comparison
Ivica Zubac
2024-25
83%
Style
83%
Level
7'1" · 270lbs
16.0/12.0/2.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Rebounder Free throw merchant Inside scorer
Alt comp
Jarrett Allen
2024-25 · 71%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 11.4
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (5yr away)
Future Value: 29
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 7.0 40
RPG 5.6 77
APG 0.7 22
SPG 0.2 19
BPG 0.8 65
MPG 15.2 30
Shooting
FG% 0.59 96
3P% - 16
FT% 0.476 7
TS% 0.58 52
Impact
Impact 44 28
Off Impact 42 22
Def Impact 49 49
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 15.8 64
WS 0.3 16
Box Score Impact -4.4 7
Value Over Replacement -0.1 21
Positional BSI -2.79 -1.61

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 15 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 14 (coef=0.0160)
Foul Drawing 16 (coef=0.0102)
Basketball IQ 17 (coef=0.0078)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 3 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 8 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 2 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 10 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 7.0 3.2 +3.8
RPG 5.6 5.8 -0.2
APG 0.7 0.2 +0.5
SPG 0.2 0.0 +0.2
BPG 0.8 1.0 -0.2
TPG - 0.4
FG% 0.59 0.5 +0.1
3P% 0.0 0.3 -0.3
FT% 0.476 0.4 +0.0

Play Style

Driving Frequency
94:6%

Positional Fit

Guard 30%
Wing 40%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Limited to 242 min — score regressed toward league average.

44 / 100 #329 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.91z
On-Court Impact -2.19 (Off -2.28, Def +0.10)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.40z
Win Model Score: 2.8016
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
42
#354
Defense
49
#247
Confidence
32%
242 min
Position Model (C)
Predicted Positional BSI: -2.79 Actual: -4.4 -1.61
Significantly underperforming C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

29 / 100 #508 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 23
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 22
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 44
Future Value well below current Impact (44) — likely declining asset

Shot Quality

PA/100
+4.95
Points Added
+4.8
Selection
0.909
FGA
96
Zone Breakdown
Rim
51.7%
60 FGA (62%)
Short Midrange
42.4%
33 FGA (34%)
Long Midrange
33.3%
3 FGA (3%)
Tendencies
Salary
$1.8M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.373

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $1,750,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Oklahoma City Barons

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
2.802
Expected WM
3.247
Dev Residual
-0.4451
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Model
3.201
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Duran Hamdy Detroit Mustangs 20 3.0 98.9% Versatile Big / Helper
J
Jose Vazquez Salt Lake City Saints 23 3.0 98.0% Versatile Big / Helper
J
Jamaya Patton Indiana Stonecutters 23 4.5 97.8% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
J
John Ford Denver Dragons 30 4.0 97.7% Versatile Big / Helper
J
Jaylen Armstrong Nashville Stars 34 3.5 97.6% Versatile Big / Helper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
11.4
Years to Peak
5
Current Win Value
9.4
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.052
Projected Peak WV
2.491
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
7
WV Growth
+0.439

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 5 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 8 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 8 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 2 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 17 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 9 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 18 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 14 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 12 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 10 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 10 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 8 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 9 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 8 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 4 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 3 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 1 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 15 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 15 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 13 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 4 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 9 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 7 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 5 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 4 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 11 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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