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Cory Collins-Carter

Cory Collins-Carter

PG

Austin Rockets · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

College: UConn · Mansfield, Massachusetts

Spectacular facilitating guard

A rotation point guard averaging 9.3 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 5.8 APG. Excels in isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl), quickness (19 rating, 99th pctl) and ball handling (19 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by defensive rebounding (2 rating, 1st pctl) and help defense (5 rating, 2nd pctl).

46
Impact
48
Future
4.0
CA
2.5
PA
33
Age
$6.0M
Salary
3.122
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(16)
O Ankle Breaker (S) O Posterizer (B) O Floater Game (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Floor General (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Sniper (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Slasher (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Shot Creator (B) D Clamps (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Kyle Lowry
NBA Comparison
Kyle Lowry
2021-22
66%
Style
66%
Level
6'0" · 196lbs
13.4/4.5/7.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Marcus Smart
2022-23 · 62%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.1
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 33 (past peak)
Future Value: 48
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 9.3 54
RPG 1.2 16
APG 5.8 91
SPG 1.3 76
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 23.0 54
Shooting
FG% 0.425 23
3P% 0.374 62
FT% 0.91 91
TS% 0.549 30
Impact
Impact 46 37
Off Impact 56 72
Def Impact 35 8
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 3.0 54
Box Score Impact -2.5 20
Value Over Replacement -0.2 14
Positional BSI -0.83 -1.67

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Ball Dominance 18 (coef=0.0152)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 1 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 2 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 9 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 5 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 9.3 13.4 -4.1
RPG 1.2 1.1 +0.1
APG 5.8 4.8 +1.1
SPG 1.3 1.0 +0.3
BPG 0.1 0.3 -0.2
TPG - 1.5
FG% 0.425 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.374 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.91 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
77:23%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by modest Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

46 / 100 #293 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.20z
On-Court Impact -0.46 (Off -0.83, Def +0.29)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.29z
Win Model Score: 3.1035
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
56
#138
Defense
35
#406
Confidence
98%
1873 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.83 Actual: -2.5 -1.67
Significantly underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

48 / 100 #298 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 47
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 49
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 50
Future Value in line with current Impact (46)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
43
TS%
26
BPM
18
WS/48
32
RAPM
40
USG%
73
PA/100
30

Shot Quality

PA/100
-4.52
Points Added
-35.3
Selection
0.976
FGA
781
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
34.9%
358 FGA (46%)
Rim
44.4%
250 FGA (32%)
Short Midrange
32.8%
125 FGA (16%)
Long Midrange
51.1%
47 FGA (6%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)
Tendencies
Salary
$6.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.337

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $6,000,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Austin Rockets

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.103
Expected WM
3.613
Dev Residual
-0.5098
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
2.974
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
Z
Zach Camara Minneapolis Blizzards 30 4.5 98.4% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
M
Merlin Rooks Toronto Huskies 20 3.0 98.4% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
L
Luis Oliveira Oklahoma City Barons 24 4.0 98.1% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
K
Kenny Cokley Washington Pilots 30 4.5 98.1% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D
Desmond NGanga Seattle Thunder 30 3.5 98.1% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Value
12.1
Years to Peak
-3
Current Win Value
12.1
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.148
Projected Peak WV
2.148
Peak Age
33
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 15 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 5 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 14 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 14 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 9 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 8 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 13 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 14 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 15 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 2 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 5 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 18 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 17 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 14 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 15 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 5 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 1 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 11 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 12 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 18 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 16 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 18 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 18 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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