Kyran Craig
SFHouston Lightning · Secondary Creator / Chaser
Explosive point wing
A solid wing. Excels in athleticism (17 rating, 93rd pctl), speed (17 rating, 93rd pctl) and first step (16 rating, 88th pctl). Limited by post execution (1 rating, 5th pctl) and strength (3 rating, 7th pctl).
-
Impact
44
Future
3.5
CA
5.0
PA
20
Age
$6.2M
2.706
Bal WV
Skill Badges
(5)
O
Speed Demon
(B)
O
PnR Maestro
(B)
O
Floor General
(B)
D
Interceptor
(B)
D
Chasedown Artist
(B)
Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)
Strengths
Passing 15 (coef=0.0156)
Stealing 15 (coef=0.0145)
Ball Dominance 14 (coef=0.0152)
First Step 16 (coef=0.0112)
Athleticism 17 (coef=-0.0094)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 9 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 10 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 5 (coef=0.0196)
Play Style
Driving Frequency
72:28%
Positional Fit
Guard
80%
Wing
80%
Big
70%
Future Value
Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.
44
/ 100
#373 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight
38
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight
39
Contract Surplus — 30% weight
57
Tendencies
Salary
$6.2M
Years Left
3
Expiry
2053
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.161
Contract Breakdown
| Season | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2050-51 | $6,250,000 | Signed rookie scale deal with Houston Lightning |
| 2051-52 | $6,250,000 | |
| 2052-53 | $6,250,000 | |
| Total Owed | $18,750,000 |
Win Model Development
Win Model Score
2.692
Expected WM
3.553
Dev Residual
-0.8609
Peak Age
26
Peak Win Model
3.116
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.
Win Model Trajectory
Most Similar Players
Predicted Archetype
Offensive
Defensive
Win Value Development
Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.0
Years to Peak
11
Current Win Value
10.8
Confidence
LOW
Win Value Trajectory
Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)
Current WV
1.904
Projected Peak WV
2.644
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.740
Rating Trainability
| Rating | Current | Growth/yr | Class | Peak Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foul Drawing | 12 | +1.23 | High Growth | 31 |
| Help Defense | 14 | +0.66 | High Growth | 27 |
| Off-Ball Defense | 15 | +0.55 | High Growth | 28 |
| Ball Dominance | 14 | +0.55 | High Growth | 28 |
| Gravity | 16 | +0.52 | High Growth | 29 |
| Spacing | 5 | +0.45 | High Growth | 18 |
| Post Execution | 1 | +0.40 | High Growth | 29 |
| Playmaking | 15 | +0.40 | High Growth | 29 |
| Stealing | 15 | +0.38 | High Growth | 19 |
| Finishing | 9 | +0.37 | High Growth | 27 |
| Defensive Rebounding | 9 | +0.37 | High Growth | 18 |
| Offensive Rebounding | 7 | +0.36 | High Growth | 18 |
| Strength | 3 | +0.35 | High Growth | 18 |
| Pick & Roll Execution | 16 | +0.34 | High Growth | 18 |
| Passing | 15 | +0.33 | High Growth | 18 |
| Self-Creation | 15 | +0.32 | High Growth | 19 |
| Isolation Execution | 15 | +0.32 | High Growth | 18 |
| 3PT Shooting | 10 | +0.31 | High Growth | 19 |
| Ball Handling | 15 | +0.30 | High Growth | 19 |
| On-Ball Perimeter Defense | 10 | +0.30 | High Growth | 18 |
| Shoot Off Dribble | 10 | +0.28 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Rim Protection | 9 | +0.26 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Inside Shooting | 13 | +0.25 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Post Defense | 5 | +0.17 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Basketball IQ | 15 | +0.07 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Endurance | 11 | +0.05 | Low Growth | 20 |
| Speed | 17 | +0.01 | Low Growth | 18 |
| Free Throws | 14 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| First Step | 16 | -0.01 | Low Growth | 18 |
| Mid-Range Shooting | 13 | -0.03 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Quickness | 14 | -0.08 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Athleticism | 17 | -0.08 | Low Growth | 19 |